Macro Trends Driving Investment Value
Starting now/peaking in 2020-2025 and beyond…
- Increasing physical effects: drought, storm damage, etc.
- Declining cap/rising price on carbon (probably by 2012)
- Strong energy efficiency regulations (probably by 2014-15)
- Large government funding flows (starting around 2015)
- Serious private sector response (starting around 2015-16)
- Sharp decline in fossil fuel availability (peak oil and gas)
- 2 billion people around the world facing water stress
- Declining availability of many natural resources (iron ore, copper, rare earth elements, etc.)
- Strong continuing price increases/bottleneck-driven inflationary pressures (e.g., on food costs)
- 8 billion people (20% increase), with 60 million more in the U.S. by 2025
- Global GDP doubling by 2025/growing rapidly
- Rapid growth in consumer purchasing power/world consumption of energy-intensive/commodity-intensive resources
- Massive growth in waste to process/recycle
- Strong growth in renewables (pushed by energy prices/carbon price) but limits to substitution levels
- Slow pursuit of early energy efficiency opportunities, resulting in heavy “catch up” spending starting around 2014-16
- Energy efficiency becomes an effective government priority (starting around 2012 -2014)
- Economy primarily fossil fuel based up to 2030 (beyond?)
- 28 trillion kWh global electricity demand (40% increase) by 2025
- Gasoline demand and VMT continue to grow
- Sharp RDD investment increase in energy technologies (starting around 2012-14)
- Declining cost of technology
- Air pollution emissions (tougher standards under Obama)
- Toxic substance (mercury, etc.) releases (tougher standards)
- Water supply/quality (a major priority)
- Waste disposal/waste-to-energy (a growing priority)
